As a sport, Golf is a favourite for many, requiring focus, skill and patience to play. Its slow-paced nature also makes it popular amongst punters, giving people time to think about their next bet and make well-thought-out decisions. And with over 70 golfers making the cut for the PGA Championships, there’s plenty of opportunity to get stuck in and get to know the players.
Best Golf Bookmakers
1
5 / 5
TOTAL SCORE
Claim a 100% upto €60 Bonus
✅ They have flexible deposits and withdrawals
✅ They have excellent odds for golf and other sports
✅ All phone devices are compatible with their mobile app
18+ New customers only. Opt in, place your first bet of €10 or more on any sports market. Get up to a €60 match in Free Bets. Offer available until 23:59 IST on 31.12.2024. Free bets expire after 7 days. Debit Card/Apple Pay payments only. T&Cs apply, see below. gamblingcare.ie | Please gamble responsibly
New Customers only. Bet €10* & Get €30* in Free Bets. Sign up, deposit between €5* and €10* to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply.
New Customers only. Bet €10* & Get €30* in Free Bets. Sign up, deposit between €5* and €10* to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply. Registration Required.
✅ They provide a variety of sports broadcasts, games, and betting opportunities
✅ They offer a superb selection of live streams of golf games
✅ They have markets available for cash out & in-play bet
18+ Play Safe. New customers using Promo code BB40 only. Min €10 stake, min odds 1/2, free bets paid as 4 x €10, free bets credited after settlement of first qualifying bet, free bets will expire 7 days after the qualifying bet is placed, payment method/player/country restrictions apply. See full terms below. gamblingtherapy.org
When betting in general, the aim of course is to turn a profit. But with so many factors impacting the outcome of a sporting event, it can be very difficult to correctly predict what will happen every time, even if you’ve done your research. Sometimes the tide is just not on your side. When placing a bet, you are up against a number of different odds and probabilities that, if you don’t understand what they mean, can leave you with a losing bet. So, is there a way to make sure you win every time? Well, not quite, but there is certainly a strategy you can take that can help you make a profit in the long term. It’s all about finding the betting options with the most value.
What is value betting?
Value betting is all about finding the best value in your betting options. It requires knowledge of the betting markets, and how odds and probabilities work in relation to betting.
Put simply, value betting is where you place bets that have a higher chance of winning. This method may not result in a win every time, but in the long run, continuing with this method will help you make a profit.
Value bets are found by looking at the odds a bookmaker is providing and determining whether or not that matches up with the actual probability of that outcome occurring. If the implied probability from the odds quoted by a betting site is lower than the actual probability of an event happening, there is value to this bet. The value of a bet can vary depending on the extent of this discrepancy.
While this may sound complicated, once you get the hang of it, it’s a much better betting strategy than jumping on a ‘sure thing’ or focusing on bankers. These strategies may work every now and then in the short term, but in the long term are not guaranteed to help you turn a profit.
An Example Of Value
As we’ve mentioned, determining a bet’s value is all about odds and probability. The easiest way to understand this is to look at a coin toss. We all know the chance of it landing on heads or tails is 50:50. So how does this correlate to odds and probabilities?
Outcome
Odds
Probability
Heads
1/1
50%
Tails
1/1
50%
Let’s say instead of 1/1 odds, you are offered 2/1 odds on heads. Here’s how that changes things:
Outcome
Odds
Probability
Heads
2/1
33.3%
Tails
1/1
50%
You know that the probability of heads occurring is 50%, however, in this scenario, the bookmaker is implying that the probability is less than this. This gives a bet on heads to be the outcome a greater value because you are getting a higher return on a greater probability.
Let’s look at it in money terms. A €10 wager on 1/1 odds would give a total return of €20 on a winning bet. Whereas with odds of 2/1, that total return becomes €30. This means you stand a chance to win an extra €10 with the same probability.
How To Identify Value Bets In Golf
When it comes to golf betting, the aim for most punters is to select the winner each week, and ultimately the winner of the tournament. The problem is that with a wide array of variables impacting the outcome and so many pro golfers, this isn’t an easy thing to correctly predict often and most punters only get it right a handful of times. If you’re trying to turn a profit, a handful of wins isn’t great.
Therefore, to keep yourself in the positive over the long run, you need to find bets with value to increase your chances of having a successful bet at a higher price. These tips will help you to identify those bets with a higher value when betting on golf:
Place different types of bets
If you’re looking at just a single market, finding a discrepancy between a betting site’s odds and the actual probability isn’t going to happen very often. The best thing to do is look across all markets and different types of bets.
In-play betting:
In-play betting can be a good place to find value bets. For example, let’s say Victor Hovland has a run of a few bad holes. Based on this, it is likely that betting sites would drop the odds of him winning. However, you know that there are still enough holes left for him to pull it back, and being in the top 5 of the World Golf Ranking, you know there is a good chance of him doing so. This would be a great opportunity to place a bet with a high value as the implied probability from the new odds is much lower than the actual probability.
Head-to-head betting:
Head-to-head betting is another one to keep an eye on. This is where a betting site will pit one golfer against another, and rather than predicting who will win, you just have to select who out of the two options will perform better. Look at the players who have been paired up and consider whether, based on your knowledge and research, the odds quoted accurately reflect the probability of the favourite beating the underdog.
Two-ball and three-ball betting:
Two-ball and three-ball betting works similarly to head-to-head betting in that you are betting on a player to finish with a better score than one or two other players. Within this type of bet, you are likely to find that backing the higher value underdog can sometimes pay off as they only have to beat one or two others, rather than win the whole round or tournament.
Round betting
It is not unusual for a player lower down in the rankings to be at the top of the leaderboard after a tournament’s opening round. These players hold a higher value as they are an underdog. A lot can happen in a round and the leaderboard can shift considerably. Therefore, keep an eye on the leaderboard as well as the statistics of a player’s past performance to see if there is a good chance of a high value underdog winning a round.
Specialise in a niche market
Niche markets can be the best place to locate value bets. Becoming specialised in the market and understanding it well will allow you to identify bets where the odds are skewed, giving them a higher value.
Think in probabilities
Typically, when placing a bet, people think in terms of favourites and underdogs. When value betting, you want to think in terms of probabilities. This is because your aim is to assess the chance of an event happening more accurately than the betting site. To do this, you need to focus on each player’s skills and abilities to analyse their chance of winning rather than simply focusing on who you believe will win. Being successful in value betting is all about looking at the numbers and facts and being disciplined and logical in your approach.
Calculate your own odds
The next step after thinking in probabilities is working out your own odds. This can be done by first calculating the probability of an event based on your knowledge and research. If you don’t know odds well enough to calculate them for yourself, there are plenty of online calculators out there where you simply have to enter your probability and it will calculate the odds for you both as decimals and fractions.
Once you have worked out what you think the odds should be, compare these to the implied probabilities quoted by bookmakers to look for discrepancies and identify those with higher value.